The Transformative Role of Mediation in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict under Conditions of Trust Erosion and Militarization
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52028/rbadr.v7.i14.ART12.KORKeywords:
Karabakh Conflict, Conflict Resolution, Frozen Conflict, Mediation Mechanism, Military-Technical CooperationAbstract
The study aims to identify the mechanisms through which protracted and ineffective mediation led to the militarisation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and its transformation into an active phase of armed confrontation. The study employed a historical-chronological approach to trace the evolution of mediation mechanisms, institutional analysis to examine the structural shortcomings of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, statistical analysis to explore the correlation between the failure of diplomatic initiatives and the dynamics of military expenditures of the conflicting parties, and a comparative method to contrast different phases of the mediation process with militarisation trends. The study revealed a systemic transformation of the mediation format, accompanied by a progressive erosion of the conflicting parties’ trust in mediation mechanisms. A clear correlation emerged between failed diplomatic initiatives and the intensification of military preparations, particularly evident after the failure of the Kazan Document in 2011, when Azerbaijan’s military budget increased from USD 1.48 billion to USD 3.08 billion in just one year. Between 1994 and 2020, Armenia’s military expenditures increased 23-fold, and Azerbaijan’s by 202-fold. The study identified structural shortcomings in the mediation mechanism, including the lack of coordination among the Minsk Group co-chairs, the absence of effective instruments to enforce peace, the inability to control the arms race, and the non-inclusive nature of the peace process. Particularly problematic was Russia’s dual role as a co-chair of the Minsk Group, which, while serving as a co-chair, simultaneously acted as the leading arms supplier to both parties – providing approximately 57% of Azerbaijan’s and 94% of Armenia’s weapons imports between 2008 and 2020. The study’s findings had practical relevance for developing more effective mediation strategies in protracted conflicts and for improving the institutional design of multilateral settlement mechanisms, which could help prevent the transformation of diplomatic processes into catalysts for further escalation.
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