O papel transformador da mediação no conflito de Nagorno-Karabakh sob condições de erosão da confiança e militarização
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52028/rbadr.v7.i14.ART12.KORPalavras-chave:
Conflito de Karabakh, Resolução de conflitos, Conflito congelado, Mecanismo de mediação, Cooperação técnico-militarResumo
O estudo tem como objetivo identificar os mecanismos pelos quais uma mediação prolongada e ineficaz contribuiu para a militarização do conflito de Nagorno-Karabakh e sua transformação em uma fase ativa de confrontos armados. Foi adotada uma abordagem histórico-cronológica para rastrear a evolução dos mecanismos de mediação; uma análise institucional para examinar as deficiências estruturais do Grupo de Minsk da Organização para a Segurança e Cooperação na Europa (OSCE); análise estatística para explorar a correlação entre o fracasso de iniciativas diplomáticas e a dinâmica dos gastos militares das partes em conflito; e um método comparativo para contrastar diferentes fases do processo de mediação com as tendências de militarização. O estudo revelou uma transformação sistêmica do formato de mediação, acompanhada por uma erosão progressiva da confiança das partes conflitantes nos mecanismos de mediação. Constatou-se uma correlação clara entre o fracasso de iniciativas diplomáticas e a intensificação dos preparativos militares, especialmente após a falha do Documento de Kazan em 2011, quando o orçamento militar do Azerbaijão aumentou de USD 1,48 bilhão para USD 3,08 bilhões em apenas um ano. Entre 1994 e 2020, os gastos militares da Armênia cresceram 23 vezes e os do Azerbaijão 202 vezes. O estudo identificou falhas estruturais nos mecanismos de mediação, incluindo a falta de coordenação entre os copresidentes do Grupo de Minsk, a ausência de instrumentos eficazes de imposição da paz, a incapacidade de controlar a corrida armamentista e a natureza não inclusiva do processo de paz. Destacou-se, ainda, o papel dual da Rússia, que, enquanto copresidia o Grupo de Minsk, atuava simultaneamente como principal fornecedora de armas para ambos os lados — responsável por cerca de 57% das importações de armas do Azerbaijão e 94% das da Armênia entre 2008 e 2020. Os achados têm relevância prática para o desenvolvimento de estratégias de mediação mais eficazes em conflitos prolongados e para o aprimoramento do desenho institucional de mecanismos multilaterais de resolução de disputas, contribuindo para evitar que processos diplomáticos se transformem em catalisadores de escaladas militares.
Referências
ABBAS, Hafiz Syed Mohsin, XU, Xiaodong, SUN, Chunxia, ULLAH, Saif, RAZA, Muhammad Ahsan Ali. Impact of Domestic and Transboundary Conflicts on Militarization. Open Military Studies, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 24-35. 2020. https://doi.org/10.1515/openms-2020-0102.
ABDUJABBOROV, Shokhrukhbek. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and foreign mediation to resolve and reduce critical situation. Nordic Academic Materials Proceedings, vol. 2. no. 2, 2024.
ABILOV, Shamkhal. OSCE Minsk Group: Proposals and failure, the view from Azerbaijan. Insight Turkey, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 143-163, 2018. https://doi.org/10.25253/99.2018201.09.
ALIYEV, Nurlan. Russia’s approaches towards Armenia and Azerbaijan: evolution of the policy or interests come first? Sprawy Międzynarodowe, vol. 74, no. 4, pp. 151-168, 2021. https://doi.org/10.35757/SM.2021.74.4.03.
APAKHAYEV, Nurlan, MADIYAROVA, Ainur, AIGARINOVA, Gulnar, RYSKALIYEV, Dauletbai, BURIBAYEV, Yermek, KHAMZINA, Zhanna. Current trends of legal regulation of relationships in the social protection sphere. Man in India, vol. 97, no. 11, pp. 221-231, 2017.
Armenia is getting exclusive Russian arms exports, says senior lawmaker Leonid Kalashnikov, 2019. Available at: https://armenpress.am/en/article/994192.
Armenian PM says Russia has not delivered weapons Yerevan has paid for. REUTERS, 2023. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/armenian-pm-says-russia-has-not-delivered-weapons-yerevan-has-paid-tass-2023-11-24/.
Armenian Weekly. More Russian Weapons Supplied to Azerbaijan, 2017. Available at: https://armenianweekly.com/2017/06/29/more-russian-weapons-supplied-to-azerbaijan/.
ASKEROV, Ali, MATYOK, Thomas. The upper Karabakh predicament from the UN resolutions to the mediated negotiations: Resolution or hibernation? European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 154-163, 2015.
ASLANLI, Araz. Brief history of ceasefire in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. IFIMES Research Papers, p. 6, 2020.
AYTEKIN, Cavit Emre, OKUR, Mehmet Akif. Civilizational deviation in collective mediation: A comparative analysis of the Cretan question and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Global Society, vol. 38, no. 4, pp. 492-519, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600826.2024.2334742.
BEARDSLEY, Kyle, LO, Nigel. Third-party conflict management and the willingness to make concessions. Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 58, no. 2, pp. 363-392, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002712467932.
BELÁK, Filip. The influence of the regional powers on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict [thesis]. Prague: Charles University, 2023.
BOBAN, Davor, BLAŽEVIĆ, Iva. The failure of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution: Shortcomings of facilitative mediation or an unsuitable mediator? Politička Misao: Časopis za Politologiju, vol. 60, no. 2, pp. 69-92, 2023. https://doi.org/10.20901/pm.60.2.04.
BROERS, Laurence. The Nagorny Karabakh conflict defaulting to war, 2016. Available at: https://policycommons.net/artifacts/1423342/the-nagorny-karabakh-conflict/2037609/.
BURKE, Róisín. International law in the buffer: Nagorno-Karabakh and intractable territorial disputes. Journal of International Peacekeeping, vol. 23, no. 3-4, pp. 249-302, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1163/18754112-20200008.
CHETERIAN, Vicken. A new phase in the Karabakh conflict, 2016. Available at: https://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle/document/89500.
CHO, Hyun Jun, HONG, Sung Woo. The dual-game of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: Focusing on the OSCE peace negotiations. Journal of International Area Studies, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 271-301, 2025. https://doi.org/10.18327/jias.2025.1.29.1.271.
D’ANIERI, Paul. Commitment problems and the failure of the Minsk process: The second-order commitment challenge. Post-Soviet Affairs, vol. 39, no. 4, pp. 257-272, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2022.2158685.
DAVTYAN, Erik. Lessons that lead to war: Foreign policy learning and military escalation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Problems of Post-Communism, vol. 71, no. 1, 26-36, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1080/10758216.2023.2183410.
DE WAAL, Thomas. The Nagorny Karabakh conflict in its fourth decade, 2021. Available at: https://cdn.ceps.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/WD2021-02_The-Nagorny-Karabakh-Conflict-in-its-Fourth-Decade.pdf.
DENIZ, Mehmet. Theory of Mediation. In: Mehmet Deniz (Ed.), Intractable Conflicts and Back-Track Mediation: Turkish and Kurdish Peace Talks in Oslo, pp. 63-140. Cham: Springer, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-44060-1.
DESTEK, Mehmet Akif, USMAN, Muhammad, SAQIB, Najia. Do political cooperations and regulations manage Africa’s sustainable mineral policy? Resources Policy, vol. 102, article no. 105494, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105494.
DUURSMA, Allard. A current literature review of international mediation. International Journal of Conflict Management, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 81-98, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCMA-02-2012-0020.
FEARON, James D. Rationalist explanations for war. International Organization, vol. 49, no. 3, pp. 379-414, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300033324.
GAFARLI, Orhan, ANAPIOSYAN, Arevik, CHAPICHADZE, Khatuna, ÖZTARSU, Mehmet Fatih. The role of global and regional actors in the South Caucasus, 2016.
GAFARLI, Orhan. Russia’s role in the Karabakh conflict. In: M. HAKAN YAVUZ, Michael GUNTER (Eds.), The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, pp. 341-365. London: Routledge, 2022. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003261209.
GELLER, Daniel S. Power differentials and war in rival dyads. International Studies Quarterly, vol. 37, no. 2, pp. 173-193, 1993. https://doi.org/10.2307/2600767.
GRANT, Thomas D. Frozen conflicts and international law. Cornell International Law Journal, vol. 50, no. 3, article no. 1, 2017.
GULIYEV, Farid, GAWRICH, Andrea. OSCE mediation strategies in Eastern Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh: A comparative analysis. European Security, vol. 30, no. 4, pp. 569-588, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1080/09662839.2021.1900121.
HARUTYUNYAN, Sargis. Russian official says Armenia signs arms supply contracts in Moscow, 2021. Available at: https://www.azatutyun.am/a/31428119.html.
HIRSCHFELD, Katherine, DE BEURS, Kirsten, BRAYFIELD, Brad, MELKONYAN-GOTTSCHALK, Ani. The Karabakh conflict, 1988-1994. In: Katherine HIRSCHFELD, Kirsten DE BEURS, Brad BRAYFIELD, Ani MELKONYAN-GOTTSCHALK (Eds.), New Wars and Old Plagues: Armed Conflict, Environmental Change and Resurgent Malaria in the Southern Caucasus, pp. 31-46. Cham: Springer, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-31143-7_3.
IBRAHIMOV, Rovshan, OZTARSU, Mehmet Fatih. Causes of the second Karabakh war: Analysis of the positions and the strength and weakness of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, vol. 24, no. 4, pp. 595-613, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1080/19448953.2022.2037862.
IŞIK, Cem, ONGAN, Serdar, YAN, Jiale, ISLAM, Hasibul. Towards carbon neutrality & COP29 Baku / Azerbaijan - COP30 Belem / Brazil: Exploring the impacts of economic, environmental, social, and governance (ECON-ESG) factors on Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) for sustainable development. Heliyon, vol. 11, no. 3, article no. e41944, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2025.e41944.
ISMAYILOV, Vilayat, GAFAROV, Nizami, VALIYEVA, Sabina. Impact of Investment on Labour Productivity in Azerbaijan’s Chemical and Petrochemical Industry. Qubahan Academic Journal, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 198-213, 2024. https://doi.org/10.48161/qaj.v4n2a211.
ISMAYILOV, Vilayat, HASANZADE, Ulkar, MEHDIZADE, Mehriban, MAMMADLI, Vugar, ORUJOVA, Mepara. The Model Of Development Of Tourism Activity In The Region Of Azerbaijan. International Journal of Environmental Sciences, vol. 11, no. 3S, pp. 330-338, 2025.
KALAGANOV, Bakhytbek, MADIYAROVA, Ainur, SARTAYEVA, Kaliya, KIM, Elina, APAKHAYEV, Nurlan, BURIBAYEV, Yermek. Legal fundamentals of the Kazakhstan’s environmental international cooperation: New vectors of legislative reforms. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, vol. 9, no. 7, pp. 1525-1538, 2018. https://doi.org/10.14505/jemt.v9.7(31).16.
KARABALAEVA, Gulmira, OSMONOVA, Dinara, BAITOKOVA, Ainura, GOLOV, Artem, KASKARBAYEVA, Zaure. Contemporary Trends in the Development of the Religious Consciousness of the Peoples of Central Asia. Pharos Journal of Theology, vol. 106, no. 3, pp. 01-14, 2025. https://doi.org/10.46222/pharosjot.106.3019.
KETNERS, Karlis. Adaptation of State Security to Modern Military Operations and Terrorist Risks in the World. Space and Culture India, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 1-5, 2025. https://doi.org/10.20896/e3p2jm77.
KHAMZIN, Amangeldy Shapievich, KHAMZINA, Zhanna Amangeldinovna, BURIBAYEV, Yermek Abiltayevich, TILEUBERGENOV, Yerazak Manapovich, IBRAIMOV, Dauren Akhmetzhanovich, YERMEKOV, Adlet Tokhtamysovich. International legal aspects of exercising refugees’ rights in Central Asia. Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 835-841, 2016. https://doi.org/10.14505/jarle.v7.4(18).15.
KHAN, Khatib Ahmad, SUBHAN, Mohammad, TIWARI, Sunil, ANSER, Muhammad Khalid, DESTEK, Mehmet Akif. Impacts of natural resources and technological innovation on SDG achievement of OECD countries: How does democracy and globalization behave? Technology in Society, vol. 81, article no. 102778, 2025.
KLIMCZUK, Andrzej, KLIMCZUK-KOCHAŃSKA, Magdalena. Core-periphery model. In: Scott N. Romaniuk, Péter N. Marton (Eds.), The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Global Security Studies, pp. 239-245. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74319-6_320.
KOÇER, Gökhan. Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Turkey. In: Göktürk TÜYSÜZOGLU, Arda ÖZKAN (Eds.), Conflict Areas in the Caucasus and Central Asia, pp. 3-30. London: Lexington Books, 2022. https://doi.org/10.5040/9781666986747.ch-1.
KYDD, Andrew. Which side are you on? Bias, credibility, and mediation. American Journal of Political Science, vol. 47, no. 4, pp. 597-611, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-5907.00042.
LANDGRAF, Walter, SEFERIAN, Nareg. A “frozen conflict” boils over: Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 and future implications, 2024. Available at: https://www.fpri.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/recommendations-.pdf.
LEWIS, David. European union support to the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process: New regional and global challenges, 2023 [discussion paper]. https://caucasuspeacebuilding.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Conciliation_Resources_EU_Armenia_Azerbaijan_Report.pdf.
LIM, Yoonkap. The Armenia-Azerbaijan war. PKO Journal, vol. 22, pp. 128-149, 2021.
LORUSSO, Marilisa. The fate of the Minsk group: Reflecting the contradictions of the international community in the Karabakh conflict, 2023. Available at: https://caucasuswatch.de/en/insights/the-fate-of-the-minsk-group-reflecting-the-contradictions-of-the-international-community-in-the-karabakh-conflict.html.
MASON, Simon J., Siegfried, Matthias. Confidence building measures (CBMs) in peace processes. In: Managing Peace Processes: Process Related Questions. A Handbook for AU Practitioners, pp. 57-77. Geneva: Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue, 2013.
MODEBADZE, Valeri. The escalation of conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis and the problems of peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh war. Journal of Liberty and International Affairs, vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 102-110, 2021. https://doi.org/10.47305/JLIA2163102m.
NATHAN, Laurie. “When push comes to shove”: The failure of international mediation in African civil wars. Track Two: Constructive Approaches to Community and Political Conflict, vol. 8. no. 2, 1999.
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs issue statement, 2009. Available at: https://www.osce.org/mg/69458.
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Statement by the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair countries, 2009. Available at: https://www.osce.org/mg/51152.
OSPANOVA, Dariga, MOROZ, Svetlana, NIYAZOVA, Anara. Legal obligations of a lawyer and standards for the protection of minors in juvenile justice. Social and Legal Studios, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 231-239, 2024. https://doi.org/10.32518/sals4.2024.231.
OZTARSU, Mehmet Fatih, IBRAHIMOV, Rovshan. Power, proximity and cooperation: Revisiting Turkey’s role in South Caucasus regionalism. Multidisciplinary Science Journal, vol. 8, no. 1, article no. e2026105, 2025. https://doi.org/10.31893/multiscience.2026105.
OZTARSU, Mehmet Fatih. The Caucasus states’ relations with Turkey (1991-2020). In: Serdar YILMAZ, Murat YORULMAZ (Eds.), The Changing Perspectives and “New” Geopolitics of the Caucasus in the 21st Century, pp. 171-199. Ankara: Astana Yayınları, 2021.
PERBAWA, Ketut Sukewati Lanang Putra, HANUM, Willy Naresta, ATABEKOV, Almaz Karimovich. Industrialization of Election Infringement in Simultaneous Elections: Lessons from Sweden. Journal of Human Rights Culture and Legal System, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 477-509, 2024. https://doi.org/10.53955/jhcls.v4i2.170.
PRANGER, A.H. The political dimension of drone warfare: The use of Turkish drones in Nagorno-Karabakh [thesis]. Utrecht: Utrecht University, 2021.
PRINCEN, Thomas. Intermediaries in international conflict. Princeton; Princeton University Press, 2014.
RASHID, Asma. Nagorno-Karabagh conflict and role of major powers: An international law perspective. Margalla Papers, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 61-70, 2021. https://doi.org/10.54690/margallapapers.25.2.73.
Resolution of the United Nations Security Council No. 822, 1993a. Available at: https://undocs.org/S/RES/822(1993.
Resolution of the United Nations Security Council No. 853, 1993b. Available at: https://undocs.org/S/RES/853(1993.
Resolution of the United Nations Security Council No. 874, 1993c. Available at: https://undocs.org/S/RES/874(1993.
Resolution of the United Nations Security Council No. 884, 1993d. Available at: https://undocs.org/S/RES/884(1993.
SARGSYAN, Suren, MURADYAN, Anahit, GEVORGYAN, Aida, MANOOGIAN, Vahakn. The role of the Minsk group in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: current crisis and the importance of preserving the existing mediation format. Bulletin of Yerevan University D: International Relations and Political Sciences, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 44-59, 2023. https://doi.org/10.46991/BYSU:D/2023.14.3.044.
SEMENENKO, Oleh, ONOFRIICHUK, Vitalii, TOLOK, Polina, RIEZNIK, Volodymyr, MOMOT, Dmytro. Analysis of Ukraine’s external military-economic relations during the war with Russia. Scientific Bulletin of Mukachevo State University. Series “Economics”, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 71–82, 2024. https://doi.org/10.52566/msu-econ1.2024.71
SHIN, Seongkyoon, BAN, Kee-hyun. The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War viewed through the lens of hybrid warfare. Defense Research, vol. 64, no. 2, pp. 49-81, 2021.
SHOIB, Soib, ARIF, Nigar, NAHIDI, Mahsa, RUMIYYA, Karimova., SWED, Sarya, ARMIYA’U, Aishatu Yusha’u. Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: Mental health repercussions and challenges in Azerbaijan. Asian Journal of Psychiatry, vol. 73, article no. 103095, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajp.2022.103095.
SMAGULOVA, Dana, RAKHMETOV, Yessil, SMANOVA, Akmaral, KONYSBAI, Bahytkul, SHANSHARBAYEVA, Botakoz. The role of the Republic of Kazakhstan in international legal support of energy security. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, vol. 9, no. 7, pp. 1457-1469, 2018. https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/jemt/article/view/2739.
SOULEIMANOV, Emil. The Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. In: OSCE Yearbook 2004, pp. 203-220. Baden-Baden: IFSH, 2005.
TSURKAN-SAIFULINA, Yuliia. The psychological ability to perceive the world in conditions of danger. Social and Legal Studios, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 56-63, 2022. https://doi.org/10.32518/2617-4162-2022-5-4-56-63.
VUKOVIĆ, Siniša. Analysis of multiparty mediation processes. Leiden: University of Leiden, 2013.
VUKOVIĆ, Siniša. Expanding ripeness beyond push and pull: The relevance of mutually enticing opportunities (MEOs). Ethnopolitics, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 190-201, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1080/17449057.2022.2004780.
WEZEMAN, Pieter, KUIMOVA, Alexandra, SMITH, Jordan. Arms transfers to conflict zones: The case of Nagorno-Karabakh. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2021. Available at: https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2021/arms-transfers-conflict-zones-case-nagorno-karabakh.
YAVUZ, M. Hakan, GUNTER, Michael. The Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-16262-6.
YAVUZ, M. Hakan, GUNTER, Michael. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: Historical and political perspectives. London: Routledge, 2022.
YILMAZ, Salih. Land swap formula in the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis solution: Goble plan and Lavrov plan. Bilig, vol. 100, pp. 177-209, 2022. https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.10008.
Downloads
Publicado
Edição
Seção
Licença
Copyright (c) 2025 REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE ALTERNATIVE DISPUTE RESOLUTION
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Não serão devidos direitos autorais ou qualquer outra remuneração pela publicação dos trabalhos.
As opiniões emitidas pelos autores dos artigos e resenhas são de sua exclusiva responsabilidade.
